Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 1.361515 1.436806 1.515140 1.602928 1.698818 1.800655 1.917353
2025-12-07 1.234372 1.338460 1.451456 1.583991 1.736167 1.906628 2.113726
2025-12-14 1.140433 1.258131 1.389451 1.548190 1.736748 1.956006 2.233944
2025-12-21 1.081642 1.210029 1.356508 1.538061 1.760020 2.026629 2.377638
2025-12-28 1.046961 1.185923 1.347689 1.552840 1.810478 2.129657 2.565719
2026-01-04 1.003688 1.148189 1.319124 1.539959 1.823488 2.183950 2.692276
2026-01-11 0.979622 1.131693 1.314486 1.555112 1.871127 2.283889 2.885984
2026-01-18 0.952303 1.109396 1.300848 1.557021 1.900249 2.359559 3.050656
2026-01-25 0.939614 1.104311 1.307977 1.585294 1.964996 2.486875 3.300025
2026-02-01 0.903358 1.067750 1.272967 1.555605 1.948179 2.497510 3.374121
2026-02-08 0.864356 1.026215 1.229776 1.512680 1.910151 2.474439 3.392700
2026-02-15 0.839705 1.002243 1.208476 1.498222 1.910987 2.507445 3.501877
2026-02-22 0.823227 0.989098 1.201908 1.505024 1.944545 2.594362 3.712909
2026-03-01 0.798178 0.963906 1.178369 1.487128 1.941119 2.624707 3.832368
2026-03-08 0.769412 0.932811 1.145662 1.454653 1.913958 2.615587 3.881178
2026-03-15 0.750886 0.914723 1.129887 1.445451 1.920927 2.660548 4.030603
2026-03-22 0.741499 0.908503 1.129982 1.458876 1.962742 2.764374 4.300118
2026-03-29 0.724080 0.890819 1.113505 1.447175 1.964591 2.801572 4.446136
2026-04-05 0.716135 0.885751 1.114353 1.460939 2.007043 2.910257 4.747170
2026-04-12 0.704718 0.875518 1.107483 1.462673 2.030009 2.986491 4.991706
2026-04-19 0.701421 0.876359 1.116269 1.488335 2.093212 3.138993 5.422771
2026-04-26 0.682137 0.854350 1.091521 1.461387 2.067372 3.126864 5.483766
2026-05-03 0.660002 0.827871 1.059661 1.422378 2.019522 3.070878 5.437103